The European Commission has proposed to amend the Climate Act by setting an ambitious new interim target: to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 compared to 1990 levels. The proposal aims to provide a coherent framework for post-2030 climate policies and reaffirm the EU's role as a global leader in the energy transition.

Why is the Commission proposing a new climate target for 2040 now?

Commission says that it wants to ensure continuity towards climate neutrality in 2050, in line with the Climate Act, which provides for an interim target to be set six months after the first global stocktaking of the Paris Agreement (December 2023).

What are the main elements and benefits of setting this goal now?

According to Commission statements, several items Key to the establishment are:

• clear target of 90% net emission reduction by 2040 compared to 1990
• post-2030 legislative stability
• flexibilities across sectors and use of limited international credits from 2036
• integrating carbon removals into the EU ETS.

Benefits include attracting investment, jobs, economic growth and increased energy security.

Can the EU reach its 90% reduction target by 2040 and what role for the Clean Industrial Deal?

According to the Commission's assessment, the objective can be achieved if the following are strengthened support conditionsincluding:

• implementing the Clean Industrial Deal, bringing together industrial competitiveness and decarbonisation
• Rapid implementation of the new state aid framework, tax recommendations for clean technologies and the launch of the Industrial Decarbonisation Bank.

These instruments will accelerate innovation and keep European industries globally competitive.

What role will international carbon credits and removals play in reaching the 2040 target?

The proposal includes the limited use of international carbon credits from 2036 onwards, subject to high quality. The integration of permanent carbon removals into the EU ETS will also be pursued. This is expected to provide flexibility to Member States and will ensure a socially just and economically efficient transition.

How realistic is the EU's target to reduce emissions by 90% by 2040?

Setting an emission reduction target of 90% by 2040 is seen as a necessary measure to comply with the Paris Agreement and limit global warming to 1.5°C. European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change says that this level of reduction is consistent with the trajectory needed to reach climate neutrality in 2050, provided structural measures in energy, transport, industry and agriculture are rapidly implemented. The Board warns that delaying these efforts would lead to much higher economic and social costs in the medium and longer term.

In an analysis published in Nature Climate Change, Ottmar Edenhofer, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and former co-chair IPCC, shows that without strong policies to expand carbon storage capacity and additional public investment, achieving a reduction of 90% over the next 15 years is extremely challenging, although achievable if the political will and the appropriate financial framework are in place.

The European Environment Agency also warns that the current pace of implementation of projects in the Fit for 55 package, combined with administrative bottlenecks and energy infrastructure limitations, may delay the achievement of this target. In published report in 2024, the Agency recommends urgently accelerating the modernisation of electricity grids and cutting red tape for renewable energy projects to make the 90% target practically feasible.

The European Commission's target is justified from a scientific perspective and aligned with global climate commitments, but it remains to be seen whether it will be implemented on time. The proposal is to be scrutinised and adopted by the European Parliament and the Council under the ordinary legislative procedure.